Under Trump, Drug overdose deaths declined nationwide for the first time in nearly 30 years is a True Statement

OVERVIEW

In a fact check done on January 9^th, 2023, Politifact.com the author concluded that the statement posted on the Trump Campaing website was “mostly false”. The statement was as follows…“President Donald J. Trump marshalled the full power of government to stop deadly drugs, opioids, and fentanyl from coming into our country. As a result, drug overdose deaths declined nationwide for the first time in nearly 30 years” 

SUMMARY OF FACTS

1. According to the CDC, from 2016 to 2017 the opioid death rates dropped by 3%. It was the first drop in opioid death rates in over 30 years.
2. Politifact stated that opioid death rates continued to rise during 2018, 2019 and 2020.
3. The “growth rate” declined in 2017, 2018 and 2019. The “growth rate” is defined as an expression of the slope of the graph or a percentage of growth.
4. According to the CDC, the opioid increased at new high 2020.
5. The COVID-19 Pandemic hit the USA in 2020 and Politifact’s opinion was “The coronavirus pandemic in 2020 drove isolation and despair for many Americans — and that year’s increase remains the biggest single yearly increase on record.”
6. According to the NIH, in 2020 overall alcohol and drug abuse rose.
7. Immigration Caravans increased in 2020 and continued to increase through 2023.
8. Science would agree with Politifact and consider 2020 to be an “outlier” and therefore should not be used in analysis.

GRAPH AND THE MATH

Blue areas represent Trump years.

Information  Supplied by CDC ( https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/databriefs/db457-tables.pdf#4 )

OPINION

Politifact’s “Ruling” (opinion) that the statement made by the Trump Campaign was mostly false is in itself false. The statement made by the Trump campaign was 100% factually accurate. When Trump entered office he was able to force a reduction in deaths by opioids for the first time in 30 years (fact 1). Politifact argues that because there were increases in 2018, 2019 and 2020 Trumps statement was mostly false (fact 2). However, in fact the annual growth rate of deaths by opioids continued to decline in 2018 and 2019 (fact 3). Politifact themselves admits that 2020 is an outlier because of the pandemic (fact 5 ). Science normal throws out data that is considered an “outlier” (fact 8). Outliers occur when data is potentially inaccurate because external variables or just simply so far out of bounds that the data must be thrown out under the assumption that it doesn’t represent a rational representation of factual observations. Considering Politifact themselves admits that 2020 had other variables relating to the pandemic, the 2020 data should NOT be considered of relevance on this fact check and is an outlier. It may be worth noting that illigal immigrants entering the country sored in 2020. This caravans of immigrants could have provided a sheild for drugs and drug dealers entering the US and thus provided an opportunity for increased distribution, use and death from opioids.  In addition, alcohol consumption and drug use in general soured during the pandemic (2020). It should be obvious that the data from 2020 is not relevant and the varibles mentioned here caused the 2020 data to be that of an outlier. Considering the fact that in 2017 the opioid death rates droped for the first time in 30 years (conceded by Politifact) combined with the fact that the “growth rate” of opioid deaths declined in 2018 and 2019, it is fair to say that the statement made on Trump’s Campaign site is Mostly True NOT mostly false. Politfact’s “Ruling” is NOT consistant with the facts, therefore it is inaccurate.